The Global Socio-Political Destabilization Wave of 2011 and the Following Years:
A Quantitative Analysis
Ph.D., Dr. Sci. (Hist.), Professor, Head of Socio-Political Destabilization Risk Monitoring Laboratory, National Research University Higher School of Economics; Professor, Faculty of Global Studies, Lomonosov Moscow State University, firstname.lastname@example.org
elibrary_id: 72980 | ORCID: 0000-0003-3014-2037 | RESEARCHER_ID: N-1160-2018
Master of Political Science, Junior Researcher, Socio-Political Destabilization Risk Monitoring Laboratory, National Research University Higher School of Economics; Junior Researcher, Center for Civilizational and Regional Studies, Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, email@example.com
elibrary_id: 781188 |
Master of Political Science, Junior Researcher, Socio-Political Destabilization Risk Monitoring Laboratory, National Research University Higher School of Economics, firstname.lastname@example.org
This article analyzes global dynamics of all the major indicators of sociopolitical destabilization in 2011-2015. The authors come to the conclusion that after the beginning of the Arab Spring, explosive global growth was observed for the overwhelming majority of indicators of socio-political destabilization – for anti-government demonstrations, riots, general strikes, terrorist acts / guerrilla warfare and purges. It was also observed for the global integral index of socio-political destabilization. On the other hand, no statistically significant growth was observed for assassinations and political crises. On the other hand, for such an important indicator of global socio-political destabilization, as a global number of coups and coup attempts, there was a statistically significant decrease. In 2011, the number of major anti-government demonstrations in the world increased in a particularly dramatic way (11.5 times, that is, more than by an order of magnitude). At the same time, there was a noticeably less intensive (approximately 6-fold) increase in the global number of riots, while the number of major terrorist attacks in this year only doubled. The global number of major anti-government demonstrations in 2012-2013 slightly decreased, while the global intensity of riots continued to grow, coming close to the intensity of anti-government demonstrations. The global number of major terrorist attacks in 2011-2014 grew exponentially, exceeding in 2014 the number of both major anti-government demonstrations and riots. In general, it can be said that the growth of the global number of riots followed the growth of the number of anti-government demonstrations with a certain lag, and the increase in the number of terrorist acts was somewhat lagging relative to both of them.
Akaev A., Korotaev A., Issaev L., Zinina J. Technological Development and Protest Waves: Arab Spring as a Trigger of the Global Phase Transition? –Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017. Vol. 116. P. 316-321. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.009
Avriel G. Terrorism 2.0: The Rise of the Civilitary Battlefield. – Harvard National Security Journal. 2016. Vol. 7. No. 1. P. 199-239.
Banks A.S., Wilson K.A. Cross-National Time Series Data Archive Coverage. Databank International. 2017. URL: http://www.databanksinternational.com/
Besenyo J. War at the Background of Europe: The Crisis of Mali. – AARMS: Academic & Applied Research in Military Science. 2013. Vol. 12. No. 2. P. 247-271.
Charnock G., Purcell T., Ribera-Fumaz R.¡Indígnate!: The 2011 Popular Protests and the Limits to Democracy in Spain. – Capital & Class. 2012. Vol. 36. No. 1. P. 3-11. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0309816811431937
D’Souza S.M. Countering Insurgencies, Terrorism and Violent Extremism in South Asia. – Small Wars & Insurgencies. 2017. Vol. 28. No. 1. P. 1-11. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09592318.2016.1266163
Dumitrascu A. El radicalismo islámico en América Latina. De Hezbolá al Daesh. IEEE Opinion. Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos. 2016. 34 p.
Fadaee S., Schindler S. The Occupy Movement and the Politics of Vulnerability. – Globalizations. 2014. Vol. 11. No. 6. P. 777-791. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14747731.2014.916552
Goldstone J.A, Bates R.H, Epstein D.L., Gurr T.R., Lustick M.B., Marshal M.G., Ulfelder J., Woodward M. A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability. – American Journal of Political Science. 2010. Vol.54. No. 1. P. 190-208. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00426.x
Grinin L.Ye., Korotayev A.V. Urbanization and Political Instability: to the Development of Mathematical Models of Political Processes. – Polis. Political Studies. 2009. No 4. P. 34-52. (In Russ.) URL: http://www.politstudies.ru/en/article/4150 (accessed 01.08.2016).
Gunaratna R. Ivory Coast Attack: Africa’s Terror Footprint Expands. – Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis. 2016. Vol. 8. No. 6. P. 14-17.
Gunter M. The Kurdish Spring. – Third World Quarterly. 2013. Vol. 34. No. 3. P. 441-457. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2013.785339
Hegghammer T. The Future of Jihadism in Europe: A Pessimistic View. – Perspectives on Terrorism. 2016. Vol. 10. No. 6. P. 156-170.
Hibbs D. Mass Political Violence: A Cross National Causal Analysis. New York: Wiley. 1973. 253 p.
Jalalzai M.K. The Prospect of Nuclear Jihad in Pakistan: The Armed Forces, Islamic State, and the Threat of Chemical and Biological Terrorism. New York: Algora Publishing. 2016. 280 p.
Jensen M., Bang H. Occupy Wall Street: A New Political Form of Movement and Community? – Journal of Information Technology & Politics. 2013. Vol. 10. No. 4. P. 444-461. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/19331681.2013.803948
Kerton S. Tahrir, Here? The Influence of the Arab Uprisings on the Emergence of Occupy. – Social Movement Studies. 2012. Vol. 11. No. 3-4. P. 302-308. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14742837.2012.704183
Korotayev A.V., Shishkina A.R., Isayev L.M. Arab Spring as a Global Phase Transition Trigger – Polis. Political Studies. 2016. No 3. P. 108-122. (In Russ.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2016.03.09
Kumar A. Multi-party Democracy in the Maldives and the Emerging Security Environment in the Indian Ocean Region. New Delhi: Pentagon Press. 2016. 204 p.
Meshcherina K.V. Libya. Long Way to Stability or Threat of Decay? – Asia and Africa Today. 2014. Vol. 8. P. 26-31. (In Russ.)
Piketty T. Capital in the 21st Century. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. 2014. 816 p.
Rogozhina N.G. ISIS – a Threat to Security of South-East Asia Countries. – Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya. 2016. Vol. 60. No. 2. P. 5-14. (In Russ.)
Turchin P. Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History. Chaplin, CT: Beresta. 2016. 300 p.
Turinskaya Kh.M. Situation in Libya. Is a Return to Federalism Possible? – Asia and Africa Today. 2015. No. 8. P. 18-23. (In Russ.)
Weiss M., Hassan H. ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror. (Russ. ed.: Weiss M., Hassan H. Islamskoe gosudarstvo: armiya terror. Moscow: Al’pina non-fikshn. 2016. 352 p.)
Wilson K. User’s Manual. Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive. Jerusalem: Databanks International. 2017.
Korotaev A.V., Bilyuga S.E., Shishkina A.R.,
Correlation between GDP per Capita and Protest Intensity: a Quantitative Analysis. – Polis. Political Studies. 2017. No2
Goldstone J.A., Grinin L.Ye., Korotaev A.V.,
Waves of revolutions in the 21st century. – Polis. Political Studies. 2022. No4
Korotaev A.V., Shishkina A.R., Baltach A.A.,
Relative Deprivation as a Factor of Socio-Political Destabilization: Towards the Quantitative Analysis of the Arab Spring. – Polis. Political Studies. 2019. No2
Korotaev A.V., Shishkina A.R., Isayev L.M.,
Arab Spring as a Global Phase Transition Trigger. – Polis. Political Studies. 2016. No3
Malkov S.Yu., Korotaev A.V., Isayev L.M., Kuzminova Ye.V.,
On methods of estimating current condition and of forecasting social instability: attempted quantitative analysis of the events of the Arab spring. – Polis. Political Studies. 2013. No4