Three Scenarios of a “Coloured” Revolution in Russia (Modelling the Net Dynamics of the Russian Polity)

Three Scenarios of a “Coloured” Revolution in Russia (Modelling the Net Dynamics of the Russian Polity)

Kazantzev A.A.,

Principal Researcher, Institute for International Studies, MGIMO University; Professor, HSE University; Principal Researcher, Science and Education Laboratory of political geography and contemporary geopolitics, HSE University,

elibrary_id: 123521 | ORCID: 0000-0002-4845-1391 | RESEARCHER_ID: H-2728-2016

DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2006.01.04

For citation:

Kazantzev A.A. Three Scenarios of a “Coloured” Revolution in Russia (Modelling the Net Dynamics of the Russian Polity) . – Polis. Political Studies. 2006. No. 1. P. 45-66. (In Russ.).


Is revolution possible in modern Russia? Under what conditions may it take place? In search of answers to these questions the author turns to analysis of the net dynamics of the Russian political system. The model of revolutionary net dynamics, which he offers, is based on the hypothesis that what is inherent in the Russian political system at all its levels, are value-based integration, dualistic vision of the world, and institutions of an imperial type. In society like this, revolutions inevitably take the form of transformation from within human spirit. This means that reasons of revolutions in Russia should be sought rather in the sphere of social consciousness than in real social practices. At that, the switches of social macro-processes leading to revolution, are here to be found in the centre of the system. In other words, revolutions in Russia are possible almost anytime, but efficient and tough power can almost anytime avert them. According to the author's conclusion, today a re-volution can be started up by: (1) partial liberalization of the regime, with the latter happening to completely lose its ability to function; (2) an intra-elite split provoked by a revolution from up; and, finally, (3) by unexpected death (natural or violent) of head of state, with no legitimate successor available.

Content No. 1, 2006

See also:

Sokolov M.M.,
The Russian National Unity: Analysis of the Political Style of a Radical-Nationalist Organization. – Polis. Political Studies. 2006. No1

Pivovarov Yu.S.,
Russian Power and Public Policy (A Historian’s Notes about the Reasons of Unsuccess of the Democratic Transit). – Polis. Political Studies. 2006. No1

Glebova I.I.,
Political Culture of Modern Russia: Images of the New Russian Power and the Social Splits. – Polis. Political Studies. 2006. No1

Rzheshevsky G.A.,
Democracy: Myth, Reality, or Boosted Brand?. – Polis. Political Studies. 2008. No5

DOSSIER: SOCIAL PROTECTION. – Polis. Political Studies. 1991. No6



   2024      2023      2022      2021   
   2020      2019      2018      2017      2016   
   2015      2014      2013      2012      2011   
   2010      2009      2008      2007      2006   
   2005      2004      2003      2002      2001   
   2000      1999      1998      1997      1996   
   1995      1994      1993      1992      1991