Russia 2020: Alternative Scenarios and Public Preferences

Russia 2020: Alternative Scenarios and Public Preferences

Melville A.Yu.,

Dr. Sci. (Phil.), Professor, Distinguished Scholar of Russia, Academic Supervisor and Dean, Faculty of Social Science, HSE University,

elibrary_id: 251142 | ORCID: 0000-0002-1414-5783 | RESEARCHER_ID: B-1152-2014

Timofeev I.N.,

Cand. Sci. (Pol. Sci.), Associate Professor of the Department of Political Theory, MGIMOUniversity; Program Director, Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC),

elibrary_id: 236879 | ORCID: 0000-0003-1676-2221 |

Rubric: Russia today

For citation:

Melville A.Yu., Timofeev I.N. Russia 2020: Alternative Scenarios and Public Preferences . – Polis. Political Studies. 2008. No. 4. P. 66. (In Russ.)


In the article, on the basis of a scenario approach, possible trajectories of Russia’s future, up to 2020, are determined. Considered as driving forces of the scenarios are: influence of outside surroundings on Russia; character of socio-economic and political modernization; quality and characteristics of the political regime; logic of the relations between the center and the regions. Four alternative scenarios are analyzed: «the Kremlin gambit», «Stronghold Russia», «Russian mosaics», «New dream». By method of focus-groups, desirability and probability of realization of corresponding scenarios are determined, as depended on party preferences of the respondents. The research is crowned with a number of unexpected results insofar as it refers to the vision by respondents of the alternative trajectories of the country’s development and to the role of the party factor in guessing right the likeness and the difference of their positions.

Content No. 4, 2008

See also:

Shestopal Ye.B.,
Quarter of a century of russian political reforms from a psychological point of view. – Polis. Political Studies. 2015. No1

Round Table Of The Political Science Faculty, Moscow State University,
Russian society and power on the eve of the elections. – Polis. Political Studies. 2012. No1

Shakhalilov Sh.Sh.,
Russia: changing the usual way of acquiring the status of a great power. – Polis. Political Studies. 2022. No5

Kolosov V.A., Turovsky R.F.,
Electoral Map of Contemporary Russia: Genesis, Structure, and Evolution. – Polis. Political Studies. 1996. No4

Bashkirova Ye.I.,
Transformation of the Values of Russian Society. – Polis. Political Studies. 2000. No6

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