"Party Zero": Russian Elections Through the Prism of the Effective Number of Parties
Paskhina I.S.,
master student, Faculty of Political Science, Lomonosov Moscow State University, politpaskhina@gmail.com
Telin K.O.,
Cand. Sci. (Pol. Sci.), Associate Professor, Department of Public Policy, Faculty of Political Science, Lomonosov Moscow State University, kirill.telin@gmail.com
elibrary_id: 712039 | ORCID: 0000-0002-1402-3778 | RESEARCHER_ID: J-7014-2016
DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2017.05.04
Paskhina I.S., Telin K.O. "Party Zero": Russian Elections Through the Prism of the Effective Number of Parties. – Polis. Political Studies. 2017. No. 5. https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2017.05.04
The article focuses on the parliamentary election results at both federal and regional levels (2003-2016). The research is based upon the index of the effective number of parties (the Laakso-Taagepera index and Golosov index) and proposes that these indices demonstrate a certain extent of political and electoral competitiveness. For the period under review authors distinguish 4 consequent stages, which reflect trends in Russian electoral competition. After the adoption of amendments, which tightened Russia’s electoral law, the electoral landscape transformed gradually from high levels of representativeness to limitation of inter-party competition through periods of “forced partization” and liberalization of electoral law. At the current stage (2013-2017) the system seeks to follow a tendency towards controlled competition. Thus, a relatively large number of parties take part in election (for instance, eleven parties were registered to participate in the 2016 election to the State Duma), but can’t provide competition to the ruling party. Based on statistics for regional parliamentary elections, only the Republic of Karelia has demonstrated more or less competitive situation. It is also confirmed by the effective number of parties index, which at the last election (2016) amounted to 3,76. In general, despite the existing partial frauds in the election results, the analysis of electoral statistics allows to build a so-called “electoral portrait” that takes into account the medium- and long-term tendencies of the electoral process and, above all, the consequences of reforms in the respective field of legislation.
References
Borisov N.A., Korgunyuk Yu.G., Lyubarev A.E., Mikhaleva G.M. Partiinaya reforma i kontrreforma 2012-2014 godov: predposylki, predvaritel’nye itogi, tendentsii [Party Reform and Counter-Reform in 2012-2014: Background, Preliminary Results, Trends]. Moscow: Tovarishchestvo nauchnykh izdanii KMK. 2015. 200 p. (In Russ.)
Buzin A.Yu., Kynev A.V., Lyubarev A.E. Mertvye dushi. Metody fal’sifikatsii itogov golosovaniya i bor’ba s nimi [Dead Souls. Methods of Falsification of Results of Voting and Struggle Against Them]. Moscow: Nikkolo M. 2007. 192 p. (In Russ.)
Enikolopov R., Korovkin V., Petrova M., Sonin K., Zakharov A. Field Experiment Estimate of Electoral Fraud in Russian Parliamentary Elections. – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA. 2013. Vol. 110. No. 2. P. 448-452. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1206770110
Gel’man V.Ya. Iz ognya da v polymya: rossiiskaya politika posle SSSR [Out of the Frying-Pan into the Fire]. Saint Petersburg: BKhV-Peterburg. 2013. 256 p. (In Russ.)
Gel’man V.Ya. The Regime, Opposition and Challenges to Electoral Authoritarianism in Russia. – NZ. 2012. No. 4. Vol. 84. (In Russ.) URL: http://www.nlobooks.ru/node/2578#sthash.4JXWckej.dpuf (accessed 12.06.2017).
Golosov G.V. Party Systems of the Word: Regional and Chronological Distribution, Patterns of Sustainability. – Political Science (RU). 2012. No. 3. P. 71-104. (In Russ.)
Gusev D.G., Matveichev O.A., Khazeev R.R., Chernakov S.Yu. Ushi mashut oslom [Ears Wag the Ass]. Saint Petersburg: Piter. 2015. 304 p.
Kazakov A.A., Shestov B.N. Quantitative Methods of Evaluation of Election “Fairness”: Opportunities and Limits. – Izvestiya Saratovskogo universiteta. Seriya “Sotsiologiya, Politologiya”. 2014. No. 1. Vol. 14. P. 108-111. (In Russ.)
Kynev A.V. Vybory regional’nykh parlamentov v Rossii 2009-2013: ot partizatsii k personalizatsii [Elections of Regional Parliaments in Russia (2009-2013): From Partitioning to Personalization]. Moscow: “Panorama” Centre. 2014. 728 p. (In Russ.)
Laakso M., Taagepera R. Effective Number of Parties: A Measure of Application to West Europe. – Comparative Political Studies. 1979. Vol. 12. No. 1. P. 3. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/001041407901200101
Lyubarev A.E. Do the Russian Elections Correspond to Their Constitutional Purpose? – Law and Politics. 2013. No. 13. P. 1903-1915. (In Russ.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.7256/1811-9018.2013.13.10158
Malkin E.B., Suchkov E.B. Politicheskie tekhnologii [Political Technologies]. Moscow: IIT. 2006. 529 p. (In Russ.)
Mebein U., Kalinin K. Electoral Falsifications in Russia: Comprehensive Diagnosis of 2003-2004, 2007-2008 Elections. – Rossiiskoe elektoral’noe obozrenie. 2009. No. 2. P. 57-70. (In Russ.) URL: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/falsificacii_reo.pdf (acccessed 12.06.2017).
Molinar J. Counting the Number of Parties: An Alternative Index. – The American Political Science Review. 1991. Vol. 85. No. 4. P. 1383-1391. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1963951
See also:
Peregudov S.P.,
Russia’s political system: experience of social engineering projections (based on the materials of the ISP report). – Polis. Political Studies. 2009. No6
Simonov K.V.,
Does Russia Need a Bipartisan System?. – Polis. Political Studies. 2015. No2
Solovyov A.I.,
A sketch by a master: political system of post-soviet Russia in Sergey Peregudov’s version. – Polis. Political Studies. 2012. No3
Bolshakov I.V.,
The culture of russian political actors: a variant of typology. – Polis. Political Studies. 2011. No5
Peregudov S.P.,
Political System of Russia After the Elections of 2007 to 2008: Factors of Stabilization and of Destabilization. Part II.. – Polis. Political Studies. 2009. No3