Strategic Stability in a Deteriorating International Environment

Strategic Stability in a Deteriorating International Environment


Kokoshin A.A.,

Dean, School of World Politics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, from-kokoshin@yandex.ru


elibrary_id: 77052 |


DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2018.04.02

For citation:

Kokoshin A.A. Strategic Stability in a Deteriorating International Environment. – Polis. Political Studies. 2018. No. 4. https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2018.04.02



Abstract

The paper examines the challenges of ensuring strategic stability in a deteriorating international environment characterized by the increasingly conflictual relations between the United States and Russia. The U.S. recent policies increased the likelihood of a direct military confrontation between the two powers and of highly dangerous and rapidly escalating events comparable with the Cuban Missile Crisis. The paper emphasizes the significance of nuclear proliferation challenges and their negative impact on the U.S.-Russia strategic balance. Global strategic stability has been also undermined by a rapid development of various disruptive technologies and weapon systems including cyberwarfare and space warfare capabilities. The erosion of strategic stability takes place against the background of an ongoing complex transition from a unipolar world order to multipolarity. In order to effectively address multidimensional challenges of ensuring and strengthening strategic stability scholars and policymakers alike should focus on the U.S.-Russia strategic nuclear balance while taking into account the impact of the strategic ballistic missile defense systems, strategic non-nuclear weapons and tactical nuclear weapons.

Keywords
strategic stability; escalation; crisis situations; strategic nuclear deterrence; strategic nonnuclear deterrence; arms control; arms reductions.


References

Akhromeev S.F., Kornienko G.M. Glazami marshala i diplomata. Kriticheskii vzglyad na vneshnyuyu politiku SSSR do i posle 1985 goda [Through the Eyes of the Marshal and Diplomat. A Critical Look at the USSR Foreign Policy before and after 1985]. M.: Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya. 1992. 320 p. (In Russ.)

Arbatov A., Dvorkin V. Strategic Stability before and after Cold War. – Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya. 2011. No. 3. P. 3-11. (In Russ.)

Chivvis Ch.S., Radin A., Massicot D., Reach C. Strengthening Strategic Stability with Russia. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. 2017. 24 p. URL: https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE234.html (accessed 25.03.2018).

Dodge M. Recommendations for the Next Ballistic Missile Defense-and-Defeat Review. – Backgrounder. The Heritage Foundation. N 3239. August 4. 2017. 7 p.

Esin V.I. U.S. Missile Defense Policy and Its Impact on Strategic Stability. – Moscow University Journal of World Politics. 2015. No. 3. P. 85–114. (In Russ.)

Esin V.I. Razvitie amerikanskoi i rossiiskoi sistem protivoraketnoi oborony i strategicheskaya stabil’nost’ [Development of American and Russian Missile Defense Systems and Strategic Stability]. – Vliyanie tekhno­logicheskikh faktorov na parametry ugroz natsional’noi bezopasnosti, voennykh konfliktov i strategicheskoi stabil’no­sti (ed. by A.A. Kokoshin) [The Influence of Technological Factors on the Parameters of Threats to National Security, Military Conflicts and Strategic Stability (ed. by A.A. Kokoshin)]. Moscow: Izdatel’stvo Moskovskogo universiteta. 2016. P. 137-159. (In Russ.)

Kokoshin A.A., Larionov V.V. Kursk Battle in the Light of Modern Defensive Doctrine. – Mirovaya ekono­mika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya. 1987. No. 8. P. 15-21. (In Russ.)

Kornienko G.M. Kholodnaya voina. Svidetel’stvo ee uchastnika [The Cold War. The Evidence of Its Participant]. Moscow: OLMA-PRESS. 2001. 504 p. (In Russ.)

Kristensen H.M., McKinzey M., Postal Th. A. How US Nuclear Force Modernization Is Undermining Strategic Stability. The Burst Height Compensation Super-Fuze. – The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. 2017. URL: https://thebulletin.org/how-us-nuclear-force-modernization-undermining-strategic-stabili­ty-burst-height-compensating-super10578 (accessed 24.03.2018).

Lieber K., Press D.G. The New Era of Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence and Conflict. – Strategic Studies Quarterly. Spring. 2013. 12 р.

Long A., Green В. Stalking the Secure Second Strike: Intelligence, Counterforce, and Nuclear Strategy. – The Journal of Strategic Studies. 2015. Vol. 38. No. 1-2. P. 38-73.

Miller Jr. J., Fontaine R. Navigating Dangerous Pathways. A Pragmatic Approach to U.S.-Russian Relations and Strategic Stability. Harvard Kennedy School, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Center for a New American Security. 2018. 32 р.

Miller Jr. J.M., Fontaine R. A New Era in U.S. Russian Stability. How Changing Geopolitics and Emerging Technologies are Reshaping Pathways to Crisis and Conflict. BCSIA, Harvard Kennedy School, CNAS. 2017. 48 р. URL: https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/a-new-era-in-u-s-russian-strategic-stability (accessed 10.03.2018).

Mills М., Toon О., Lee-Taylor J., Robock A. Multi-decadal Global Cooling and Unprecedented Ozone Loss Following a Regional Nuclear Conflict. – Earth’s Future. 2014. Vol. 2. No. 4. Р. 161-176 p.

Nesterchuk A.N., Aksenov O.Yu. Prospects for the Development of the Radar Field of the Russian Missile Attack Warning System in the Interests of Ensuring Russia’s Military Security. – Voennaya mysl’. 2017. No. 6. P. 43-50. (In Russ.)

Robock A., Oman L., Stenchikov G.L. Nuclear Winter Revisited with a Modern Climate Model and Current Nuclear Arsenals: Still Catastrophic Consequences. – Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres. 2007. Vol. 112. No. D13107. 14 р. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008235

Robock A., Toon O. Self-Assured Destruction: The Climate Impacts of Nuclear War. – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 2012. Vol. 68. No. 5. Р. 66-74.

Veselov V.A. The Role of Technological Factor in Transforming Parameters of Strategic Stability. – Moscow University Journal of World Politics. 2015. No. 3. P. 23–56. (In Russ.)

Content No. 4, 2018

See also:


Arbatov A.G.,
The Ukrainian crisis and strategic stability. – Polis. Political Studies. 2022. No4

Arbatov A.G.,
China and Arms Control: Not Utopia, but a Reality. – Polis. Political Studies. 2020. No4

Arbatov A.G.,
Nuclear metamorphoses. – Polis. Political Studies. 2023. No5

Mizin V.I., Sergeev V.M.,
Modern Concepts of Strategic Stability. – Polis. Political Studies. 2018. No5

Arbatov A.G.,
Threats to Strategic Stability – Imaginary and Real. – Polis. Political Studies. 2018. No3

 

   

Introducing an article



Polis. Political Studies
3 2008


Korsoun V.A.
Identity «with Chinese Specificity»

 The article text
 

Archive

   2024      2023      2022      2021   
   2020      2019      2018      2017      2016   
   2015      2014      2013      2012      2011   
   2010      2009      2008      2007      2006   
   2005      2004      2003      2002      2001   
   2000      1999      1998      1997      1996   
   1995      1994      1993      1992      1991