Neo-Realistic Approach to Analysis of Military-Political Situation in the Arctic
Freelance Researcher, Asia Pacific International Institutions & Multilateral Cooperation Studies Center of Oriental Institute – School of Regional and International Studies of Far Eastern Federal University (FEFU), Vladivostok, email@example.com
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The current state of international relations in the Arctic is characterized by a high degree of distrust among regional states, which is accompanied by increase in their military activity. That process could have a detrimental effect on regional security prospects. This article presents a comprehensive analysis of the military-political situation in the Arctic region. The author suggests that from the military perspective there are only two key actors represented in the Arctic – Russia and NATO. The results of a comparative analysis of the military power of those actors show quantitative superiority of NATO in this aspect. However, for a number of reasons, NATO is not yet a fully capable political actor in the region, which could formulate a common Arctic agenda for its members. Trying to determine what triggered the process of building military power in the region, the author resorted to applying the basic postulates of the offensive realism concept, within which the main goal of any state is the survival, and the main motive for its actions is the fear of destruction. According to the results of the analysis, the author comes to the conclusion that today the Arctic states have become hostages to the “security dilemma”, since all of them have their own legitimate reasons for mutual fears, especially in the conditions of the crisis of trust.
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