Split-ticket voting in the federal legislative elections: evidence from the 7th convocation of the State Duma

Split-ticket voting in the federal legislative elections:
evidence from the 7th convocation of the State Duma



Article received: 2021.05.27. Accepted: 2021.12.26


DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2023.03.09
EDN: KUZGDR

Rubric: Russia today

For citation:

Gaivoronsky Yu.O. Split-ticket voting in the federal legislative elections: evidence from the 7th convocation of the State Duma. – Polis. Political Studies. 2023. No. 3. P. 114-131. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2023.03.09. EDN: KUZGDR



Abstract

The article is devoted to split-ticket voting in the 2016 State Duma elections. After the re-introducing of the mixed electoral system, voting for both the list of the party A and a candidate nominated by the party B appears to be popular among the electorates. This fact contradicts the conventional wisdom that institutionalized party systems produce a comparatively small number of split tickets. In this regard, strategic and personal voting hypotheses have been tested to explain the abovementioned election results. Park’s version of Thomsen’s ecological estimator of partisanship has been applied to the case of the federal parliamentary elections in Russia. The lower the partisanship the higher the chances that split-ticket voting will take place. The study has revealed that opposition parties registered after the 2012 party reform have not formed so-called “core” electorates yet. More institutionalized opposition parliamentary parties accompanied by Yabloko have shown the average levels of partisanship. In contrast, only the voters of the party United Russia do not tend to split their tickets. Nevertheless, the party’s ticket splitters make up a significant fraction of the total. As for the hypotheses, the analysis has revealed that the split-ticketing in SMDs is driven by the personal qualities of candidates rather than strategic calculations. The personal vote can be considered as being related to rational expectations of effective representation in this sense. Among such qualities, political experience manifested in professional and electoral dimensions has been the most significant.

Keywords
split-ticket voting, mixed-member proportional representation, Russia, State Duma, political parties, elections.


References

Bawn, K. (1999). Voter responses to electoral complexity: ticket splitting, rational voters and representation in the Federal Republic of Germany. British Journal of Political Science, 29(3), 487-505. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123499000228

Bochsler, D. (2015). Bending the rules: electoral strategies under mixed electoral systems. Representation, 51(2), 261-267. https://doi.org/10.1080/00344893.2015.1064223

Burden, B.C. (2009). Candidate-driven ticket splitting in the 2000 Japanese elections. Electoral Studies, 28(2), 33-40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2008.06.007

Cox, G.W. (1997). Making votes count: strategic coordination in the world’s electoral systems. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Duverger, M. (1954). Political parties: their organization and activity in the modern state. Methuen: Wiley.

Goodman, L. (1959). Some alternatives to ecological correlation. American Journal of Sociology, 64, 610-625.

Grofman, B., Blais, A., & Bowler, S. (Ed.). (2009). Duverger’s law of plurality voting. The logic of party competition in Canada, India, the United Kingdom, and the United States. New York, NY: Springer.

Gschwend, T., Johnston, R., & Pattie, C. (2003). Split-ticket patterns in mixed-member proportional election systems: estimates and analyses of their spatial variation at the German Federal Election, 1998. British Journal of Political Science, 33(1), 109-127. https://doi.org/10.1017/S000712340300005X

Herrmann, M., & Pappi, F.U. (2008). Strategic voting in German constituencies. Electoral Studies, 27(2), 228-244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2007.10.007

Jesse, E. (1988). Split-voting in the Federal Republic of Germany: analysis of the federal elections from 1953 to 1987. Electoral Studies, 7(2), 109-124. https://doi.org/10.1016/0261-3794(88)90026-1

Karp, J.A. (2009). Candidate effects and spill-over in mixed systems: evidence from New Zealand. Electoral Studies, 28(1), 41-50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2008.06.012

Karp, J.A., Vowles, J., Banducci, S.A., & Donovan, T. (2002). Strategic voting, party activity, and candidate effects: testing explanations for split voting in New Zealand’s new mixed system. Electoral Studies. Vol. 21(1), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(00)00031-7

King, G., Rosen, O., & Tanner, M. (2004). Ecological inference: new methodological strategies. analytical methods for social research. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

McAllister, I., & White, S. (2000). Split-ticket voting in the 1995 Russian Duma elections. Electoral Studies, 19(4), 563-576. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(99)00031-1

Moser, R., & Scheiner, E. (2005). Strategic ticket splitting and the personal vote in mixed-member electoral systems. Legislative Study Quarterly, 30(2), 259-276. https://doi.org/10.3162/036298005X201545

Moser, R.G., & Sheiner, E. (2009). Strategic voting in established and new democracies: ticket splitting in mixed-member electoral systems. Electoral Studies, 28(1), 51-61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2008.06.011

Park, W.-H. (2008). Ecological inference and aggregate analysis of elections. Ph.D. Thesis. The University of Michigan.

Park, W.-H., Hanmer, M.J., & Biggers, D.R. (2014). Ecological inference under unfavorable conditions: straight and split-ticket voting in diverse settings and small samples. Electoral Studies, 36, 192-203. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2014.08.006

Schoen, H. (1999). Split-ticket voting in German federal elections, 1953-90: an example of sophisticated balloting? Electoral Studies, 18(4), 473-496. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(99)00023-2

Shugart, M., & Wattenberg, M.P. (Ed.). (2001). Mixed-member electoral systems. The best of both worlds? New York, NY: Oxford University Press.

Singer, M.M. (2012). Was Duverger correct? Single-member district election outcomes in fifty-three countries. British Journal of Political Science, 43(1), 201-220. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123412000233

Thomsen, S. (1987). Danish elections 1920–79: a logit approach to ecological analysis and inference. Arhus: Politica.

Turovsky, R. (2018). Institutionalization versus personalization: electoral effects of the mixed-member electoral system in Russia. European Politics and Society, 19(5), 595-622. https://doi.org/10.1080/23745118.2018.1492197

Turovsky, R. (2018). Presidential elections in Russia: opportunities and limits of electoral consolidation. Politeia, 2, 23-50. (in Russ.) 10.30570/2078-5089-2018-89-2-23-50 

Content No. 3, 2023

See also:


Rastorguev S.V.,
Incumbents-businessmen in the regional legislatures within the Central Federal district in the years of 2000 to 2011. – Polis. Political Studies. 2012. No4

Sergeev V.M., Bel'ayev A.V., Biryukov N.I., Gusev L.Yu.,
Formation of Parliamentary Parties in Russia (The State Duma in 1994 to 1997). – Polis. Political Studies. 1999. No1

Vasilyev V.I.,
Federalism and Election System in FRG. – Polis. Political Studies. 1995. No4

Yargomskaya N.B.,
The Electoral System and the Level of the Party System's Fragmentation in Russia. – Polis. Political Studies. 1999. No4

Shutov A.Yu.,
The First Russian Electoral System (On How It Was Being Worked Out). – Polis. Political Studies. 1998. No2

 

   

Introducing an article



Polis. Political Studies
5 2018


Pechatnov V.O.
Bilderberg Coming of Age (1950s-1970s)

 The article text 
 

Archive

   2024      2023      2022      2021   
   2020      2019      2018      2017      2016   
   2015      2014      2013      2012      2011   
   2010      2009      2008      2007      2006   
   2005      2004      2003      2002      2001   
   2000      1999      1998      1997      1996   
   1995      1994      1993      1992      1991