Foreign interference as a form of interstate competition: types and motives

Foreign interference as a form of interstate competition:
types and motives



Article received: 2023.11.11. Accepted: 2024.03.10


DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2024.03.02
EDN: ZLHUCK


For citation:

Suchkov M.A. Foreign interference as a form of interstate competition: types and motives . – Polis. Political Studies. 2024. No. 3. https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2024.03.02. EDN: ZLHUCK (In Russ.)


The research was funded by the Russian Science Foundation grant № 22-18-00723, https://rscf.ru/project/22-18-00723/.


Abstract

The revival of the “great power competition” as a modern-day paradigm of international relations boosts certain forms of interstate rivalry that can be simultaneously effective and correspond to certain levels of acceptable cost-benefit balance. This includes the phenomenon of foreign interference into the domestic affairs of sovereign states. Research on this topic by foreign and Russian authors can be divided into two closely intertwined, but problematically different blocks: the former make attempts to theoretically understand the very concept of “interference”, while the latter focuses primarily on the phenomenon of “interference” as an element of strategic competition. While the former is primarily focused on clarifying the “contents” of the interference, the latter, in essence, is devoted to understanding its “form” with an emphasis on the actions of states. This paper seeks to determine the place of “interference” within the overall framework of interstate rivalry, to clarify the content and the definition of the very concept. It seeks to identify the motives for interference, construct their hierarchy, pair them with types of actions, and on this basis present a “ladder of escalation of interference” similar to the “ladders of escalation” of other types of military-political conflicts. The construction of such a model intends to help organize analysis and improve predictive capabilities on the issue of interference into domestic affairs and facilitate the adoption of more effective decisions in this area by policy-making circles.

Keywords
interference, strategic competition, war, hybrid warfare, color revolutions, escalation, de¬escalation, ladder of escalation.


References

Barss, E. (2022). Chinese election interference in Taiwan. Routledge.

Carlson, L. (1995). A theory of escalation and international conflict. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 39(3), 511-534. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002795039003006

Chekov, A.D., Makarycheva, A.V., Solomentseva, A.M., Suchkov, M.A., & Sushentsov, A.A. (2019).

War of the future: a view from Russia. Survival, 61(6), 25-48. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2019.1688563

Davis, P., & Stan, P. (1984). Concepts and models of escalation. A Report from the RAND Strategy Assessment Center. https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/reports/2007/R3235.pdf

Finlay, L., & Payne, C. (2019). The attribution problem and cyber armed attacks. AJIL Unbound, 113, 202-206. https://doi:10.1017/aju.2019.35

Hammond-Errey, M. (2019). Understanding and assessing information influence and foreign interference. Journal of Information Warfare, 18(1), 1-22. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26894654

Hoffman, F. (2007). Conflict in the 21st century: the rise of hybrid wars. Arlington: Potomac Institute for Policy Studies

Istomin, I.A. (2023). Military deterrence vs foreign interference? Record of the Cold War. MGIMO Review of International Relations, 16(1), 106-129. https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2022-olf4

Kahn, H. (2010). On escalation: metaphors and scenarios (1st ed.). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315125565

Knake, R. (2020). Banning covert foreign election interference. Council on Foreign Relations. http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep29914

Kratochwil, F. (1995). Sovereignty as dominium: is there a right of humanitarian intervention? In State Sovereignty and International Intervention (p. 21-42). Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

Kriesberg, L. (2015). Escalations and de-escalations in the Cold War, 1945-1968. In Realizing Peace: A Constructive Conflict Approach (pp. 22-56). New York, https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190228668.003.0002

Little, R. (1975). Intervention: external involvement in civil wars. London: M. Robertson.

Morgan, F., Mueller, K., Medeiros, E., Pollpeter, K., & Cliff, R. (2008). The nature of escalation. In Dangerous Thresholds: Managing Escalation in the 21st Century (1st ed) (pp. 7-46). RAND Corporation. http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/mg614af.9

Rahman, M., Haciyakupoglu, G., Ang B., Leong D., Yang J., & Yi-Ling, T. (2020). Cases of foreign interference in Asia. S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep24327

Rich, P. (2019). The snowball phenomenon: the US marine corps, military mythology and the spread of hybrid warfare theory. Defense & Security Analysis, 35(4), 430-446. https://doi:10.1080/14751798.2019.1675942

Standish, R. (2018). Inside a European Center to combat Russia's hybrid warfare. Foreign Policy. https:// foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/18/inside-a-european-center-to-combat-russias-hybrid-warfare/

Strickland, D. (2020). Overriding democracy: American intervention in Yeltsin's 1996 reelection campaign. Footnotes: A Journal of History, 4, 166-181.

Sweijs, T., Usanov, A., & Rutten, R. (2016). Crisis and escalation. In Back to the Brink: Escalation and Interstate (pp. 35-53). Hague Centre for Strategic Studies.

Wohlforth, W. (2020). Realism and great power subversion. International Relations, 34(4), 459-481. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047117820968858

Bartenev, V.I. (2018). Intervention in the domestic affairs: questioning definitions. Moscow University Bulletin of World Politics, 10(4), 79-108. (In Russ.)

Istomin, I.A. (2023). Foreign interference in internal affairs: deconstruction of an essentially indeterminate concept. Polis. Political Studies, 2, 120-137. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2023.02.09

Kokoshin, A.A. Baluevskiy, Y.N, Esin V.I., & Shlaykhturov A.V. (2021). Voprosi eskalatsii i deeskalatsii

krizisnikh situatsyi, vooruzhennikh konfliktov i voyin [Escalation and de-escalation in crisis situations, armed conflicts and wars]. Moscow: LENAND. (In Russ.)

Kokoshin, A.A. (2006). Real'nyi suverenitet v sovremennoi miropoliticheskoi sisteme [Real sovereignty in the modern world political system]. Moscow: Evropa. (In Russ.)

Marchenkov, V.I. (Ed.). (2005). Khochesh' mira, pobedi myatezhevoinu! Tvorcheskoe nasledie E. Messnera [If you seek peace, find a way to win the subversion-war]. Moscow: Military University of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. (In Russ.)

Shmeleva, E.Ya. (2020). The history of the word interventsiya in Russian. Russkaya rech', 5, 99-110. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.31857/S013161170012135-7

Suchkov, M.A. (2020). Problema uregulirovaniya v Sirii v otnosheniyakh Rossii i SShA [The problem of Syrian settlement in relations between Russia and the United States]. Rossiya i SShA v XXI veke. Osobennosti otnoshenii [Russia and the USA in the XXI century. Features of relationships] (pp. 183-198). Moscow: Aspect Press. (In Russ.)

Content No. 3, 2024

See also:


Rozov N.S.,
Crisis and Revolutions: Fields of Interaction, Actors’ Strategies, and Trajectories of Conflict Dynamics. – Polis. Political Studies. 2017. No6

Tarasov I.N.,
Escalation of History as Phenomenon in the Relations of Russia with the Countries of Central-East Europe. – Polis. Political Studies. 2008. No2

Yevzerov R.Ya. ,
World War as the 20th Century Phenomenon. – Polis. Political Studies. 1995. No3

Ilyin M.V.,
The War in Yugoslavia: from Sacrificing Serbia to the Suicide of the West?. – Polis. Political Studies. 1999. No2

Neklessa A.I.,
Babilon Aeris. Hybrid World and Syrian Maze. – Polis. Political Studies. 2016. No3

 

   

Introducing an article



Polis. Political Studies
1 2008


Potseluyev S.P.
Double Binds, or Dual Traps of Political Communication.

 The article text
 

Archive

   2024      2023      2022      2021   
   2020      2019      2018      2017      2016   
   2015      2014      2013      2012      2011   
   2010      2009      2008      2007      2006   
   2005      2004      2003      2002      2001   
   2000      1999      1998      1997      1996   
   1995      1994      1993      1992      1991